How smart are the "experts"?

I've always wanted to track how well the "experts" are at predicting the Final Four. Sports Illustrated and ESPN both have handy lists of their expert picks. Let's compare them with a mid-season video game simulation and see who is the most right.

Final Four Simulation

ESPN ran a mid-season simulation of the Final Four for 2007. I like the results, but I'll wait to see the real outcome. I'll be shocked if their Final Four teams really pan out.

Super Bowl Simulation

ESPN ran a simulation of the Super Bowl on Friday, February 2nd. You can read the results in an article and even see video highlights (the video link was down as of Monday February 5th).

Great short story

The Last Question is a great science fiction short story by Isaac Asimov. In his own words:

"This is by far my favorite story of all those I have written.
After all, I undertook to tell several trillion years of human history in the space of a short story and I leave it to you as to how well I succeeded. I also undertook another task, but I won't tell you what that was lest l spoil the story for you.
It is a curious fact that innumerable readers have asked me if I wrote this story. They seem never to remember the title of the story or (for sure) the author, except for the vague thought it might be me. But, of course, they never forget the story itself especially the ending. The idea seems to drown out everything -- and I'm satisfied that it should. "

Signs in the heavens?

Offbeat news on CNN this morning about the falling sky, but then again we've been promised "great earthquakes shall be in divers places, and famines, and pestilences; and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven. " (Luke 21:11)

Computer security in 2007

TechRepublic has posted some predictions to watch for in the computer security realm in the next year.

The major threats Mr. McCormick sees are:

• Increases in Spam activity
• VoIP eavesdropping and scams
• Corporate identity theft
• ATM PIN numbers

I plan to revisit this toward the end of 2007 to see how close they really were.

Bold statement for the NFL Playoffs

I just love the swagger of sports analysts. They'll say just about anything since they know very few of their readers will ever call them on the carpet for their predictions. This is one to track.

AMERICA'S TEAM
7. New Orleans - I don't think the Saints have enough, although there's no way they're losing a playoff game at the Superdome. It's simply not happening. Every article written about the potential Nos. 5 and 6 teams in the NFC over the next four weeks should be required to mention that they have no chance -- none, zilch, zero, nada -- if Seattle and New Orleans end up hosting Round 1 games.

Is Vista going to change everything?

One CNN Money writer makes the argument here.

I think I'll take the wait and see approach on this one.

1997 - Bill Gates on the future: "People tend to overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years but underestimate the changes that will occur in the next ten...We're developing OS technology that will enable computers to see, listen and learn." (CIO Magazine)

Maybe I'll check this post in 2 years and 10 years to see what I think.